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Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Buy Low Sell High??


Buying low and selling high sounds simple but let's take a closer look. Won't we have to time our trades to buy at the low and sell at the high? How will we know when a stock trades at a low or at a high? How does that square with the sage advice "don't try to time the market?"

Buying low and selling high is not an executable investment strategy.  Buying great companies at a good price and holding them is a strategy that works. Take Wells Fargo Bank for example. The bank has more revenue and more profit than at any time since it was founded in 1929. It was forced to take government aide it did not want, tried to refuse and has already repaid. The stock once traded in the $70 range (split adjusted $31.00.) The company is paying a $.48 dividend and buying back its own shares. Buying Wells Fargo Bank at under $25 means you get a 2% dividend return on your money. Wells Fargo Bank is cheap! No wonder no one wants to buy! People are very leery about buying stocks cheap. After all, there is great uncertainty over the economy, the mortgage mess, regulations, political dysfunction, European bank solvency,  the nation debt and deficit and much more.

People are afraid to buy now but when most or all of these issues are resolved people will feel much better.  Of course Wells Fargo Bank won't be cheap then but that's OK. People like to buy when things are safe and prices are high. Well most people--Warren Buffett is buying Wells Fargo Bank stock now and he plans to sell--never.  

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The Easy Way

I like strong companies that pay dividends. Proctor and Gamble is a good example. The company has paid a dividend for 120 consecutive years and increased the dividend for the past 55 consecutive years. If you accumuliate stock in P&G over a long period of time the dividend will eventually provide you with a nice current income. As others fret the markets ups and downs P&G just keeps on growing and pumping out money. No worries!

Contrast P&G to a mutual fund that pays no dividend. What do you do with you mutual fund when it's time to retire? What if you had planned to retire in 2008? P&G increased its dividend in 2008 while most mutual funds were down by half. If you have to sell the mutual fund in order to get cash for retirement you might want to rethink your plan.

Monday, August 15, 2011

The stock market

The stock market has been bouncing wildly. Financial news networks are responding with "what should you do now?" extended coverage.  It reminds me of hurricane season when weather reporters practice the art of instilling fear by telling everyone to remain calm.

Surviving financial hurricanes requires you to do absolutely nothing during the storm. Doing nothing is hard work.